🏈 Who Will Draft Caleb Downs? 2026 NFL Draft Projection, Scouting Report & Team Prediction

Since 2000, just eight safeties have been selected in the top 10 of the NFL draft, and for the first time since 2017, a safety is expected to go in the first 10 picks tonight. But who will draft Caleb Downs?

The New York Giants (No. 5 and No. 10) and Dallas Cowboys (No. 12 and No. 20) are the biggest favorites to select Downs, according to prediction market apps. The three-time All-American is one of the cleanest prospects in recent memory; however, top picks are rarely used on even the most impressive safety prospects.

I've spent the past year watching film and grading every top prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft. Below, I break down Downs' draft profile, including his biggest strengths and weaknesses; my full scouting report and draft grade on Downs; and which team I expect to draft the former Buckeyes' star in the first round on Thursday, April 23, as part of our 2026 NFL Draft predictions. 

📝 Caleb Downs draft profile

For more on the NFL draft, check out the 2026 NFL Draft odds.

Caleb Downs strengths

You cannot measure Downs' biggest strength. His football IQ cannot be captured by statistics or athletic testing, but when you watch the tape, you see it constantly with the way he's a step ahead of quarterbacks, flying down in run support, and never taken out of position to give up a big play. Downs is one of the most cerebral defensive prospects in recent memory and hasn't allowed a TD in two years.

While he's not the biggest or fastest safety, Downs' ability to diagnose and react to quarterbacks makes it seem like he runs sub-4.4. And his average stature won't be a problem when it comes to tackling, he has some of the best take-on skills of any defensive back in the draft class, and is a hammer in run support - Downs was top 10 in the Power Four in run stops among defensive backs in 2025 (21).

Downs' route recognition and ability to read run keys from deep allow him to frequently arrive on time, wether to separate a receiver from the football or run the alley to finish through a ball carrier. He's a general on the football field with the way he sees the game and communicates, and he can wear the green dot in the NFL as a quarterback of a defense.

Caleb Downs weaknesses

The biggest knock on Downs as a prospect might be the position he plays. Safety is arguably the most devalued position when it comes to being a top-10 pick, and we see time and time again the NFL pass on top-10 prospects because they play safety (Kyle Hamilton, Minkah Fitzpatrick). 

In terms of on-field knocks, Downs isn't the most physically imposing player, and is more technically sound than he is an explosive playmaker (just six interceptions in three years). That could cap his ceiling to some degree, and he doesn't fit the mold of a Hamilton or Nick Emmanwori as a big nickel, necessarily.

Caleb Downs scouting report

Since the second Downs started as a true freshman for Nick Saban at Alabama, he's been touted as a future first-round pick. A five-star, and the No. 8 recruit in the class of 2023, Downs started in Week 1 of his freshman year (replacing Brian Branch, who had left the Crimson Tide for the NFL) and never looked back.

He was the best player as an 18-year-old on a Saban defense, leading the team in tackles (107), and he didn't slow down in Columbus. Following Saban's retirement, Downs entered the transfer portal as the No. 1 transfer in the class and immediately made his presence felt at Ohio State.

In his first season with the Buckeyes, Downs earned unanimous All-American honors and helped lead the best defense in the country to a national championship. He then learned his third defense in three years with Matt Patricia taking over for Jim Knowles in 2025, and he paid it off by taking home Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.

Over two seasons at Ohio State, Downs allowed a lower than 53.5 NFL QB rating when targeted and never gave up a touchdown. He played all over the defense, too, lining up at free safety on 41.7% of snaps, in the box on 38.2% of snaps, and as a slot defender on 20.1% of snaps. 

Downs is the definition of a "safe" prospect, with his football IQ and work ethic being raved about since he started at Alabama in 2023. A captain at Ohio State, he's a perfect leader for the backend of a defense, and the type of player whose impact cannot be quantified. Downs has an All-Pro ceiling. 

Caleb Downs draft grade

• 7.40 (top-10 pick)

🔮 Who will draft Caleb Downs?

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Caleb Downs draft projection & landing spots

While Downs is a consensus top-five player in the 2026 NFL Draft, it's hard to know how the NFL will value a safety. We saw teams let Hamilton fall to the 14th pick in 2022, despite being an obvious Pro Bowl talent. 

This time around, and in a weaker draft class, it's hard to imagine the NFL letting a player of Down's caliber fall out of the top 10. He checks every box and was born to play in the NFL (his father, Gary, spent seven seasons in the league, and his brother, Josh, currently plays for the Indianapolis Colts).

Speaking of having a brother in the NFL, John Harbaugh's going to have a tough time passing on Downs. The Giants have a 41% chance of taking him, and they could potentially pick him at No. 5 or No. 10.

The Cowboys (18% chance) also make some sense, because there's no way they'll pass on him if he falls to No. 12. They could also potentially use their two first-round picks to move up for a blue-chip talent like Downs.

The New Orleans Saints (17% chance) are a wild card because GM Mickey Loomis loves taking Ohio State players (he's done it in the first round four times), and if Downs is on the board when they pick at No. 8, he'll likely be the best player available. 

Prediction: Caleb Downs to the Giants

The Giants make the most sense as a landing spot for Downs, both because of Harbaugh and because they have two top 10 picks. When Harbaugh was leading the Baltimore Ravens, the team took defensive backs with their first-round pick six times between 2011 and 2025, including selecting three safeties.

Downs is the type of football lifer Harbaugh will love, and the exact player New York needs in its locker room as it builds its culture under a new head coach. The Buckeyes' star can be a franchise cornerstone in the Big Apple.