🏈 Arvell Reese vs. David Bailey: Who Will the Jets Take 2nd in the 2026 NFL Draft?

There's zero debate over who the Las Vegas Raiders will take No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft tonight (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/NFL Network). With Indiana's Fernando Mendoza a lock to be the top pick, the real fun starts at No. 2 when the New York Jets are on the clock.

The Arvell Reese vs. David Bailey debate has raged on for weeks, with nobody's 2026 NFL Draft predictions knowing which direction Jets general manager Darren Mougey and head coach Aaron Glenn will go with the second overall pick.

The latest prediction market odds point toward Bailey, the ferocious sack artist from Texas Tech, but will he really go over Reese, who had been linked to New York since he opted to leave Ohio State for the NFL?

📊 Who will the Jets draft at No. 2? Latest prediction market odds

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⚔️ The scouting clash: Arvell Reese vs. David Bailey

The case for Arvell Reese (the versatile freak)

• Versatile defensive chess piece who is just scratching the surface of his potential
• Limited reps as a pass rusher while playing a joker role in Matt Patricia's system but managed 27 pressures and 6.5 sacks on 119 total pass rush opportunities

While Reese doesn't have the same counting stats as Bailey, it has more to do with his role at Ohio State than his inability to pressure quarterbacks. When Reese was able to play more of a true edge role, he flashed his ridiculous explosiveness, which showed up in his 98th percentile 40-yard dash (4.46) and 92nd percentile 10-yard split (1.58).

Although new to the position after playing off-ball linebacker most of his life, Reese clearly has the tools to develop into a Pro Bowl pass rusher in the NFL. His movement skills, specifically his fluidity, are rare, and he brings legit power to the table. 

Reese is as violent as he is athletic and can wear several different hats in the NFL with his ability to be a weapon as a pass rusher, QB spy, and edge setter against the run. The 20-year-old has the highest ceiling in the draft.

➡️ Arvell Reese prospect profile & scouting report

The case for David Bailey (the pure pass rusher)

• Pro-ready pass rusher with the twitch to make an immediate impact hunting QBs
• Led the country in sacks (14.5) and finished No. 2 in pressures (81)

The argument for Bailey is clear: he's the best prospect in the class at getting to the quarterback right now. His twitchiness is terrifying, and his burst off the line is rare, and he's not just a speed rusher either. Bailey showed his ability to convert speed to power and beat offensive tackles by going through them.

With heavy hands and a developing pass rush plan, Bailey has the tools to lead all rookies in sacks in 2026. He's a rugged pass rusher with proven production and elite athleticism, and he improved each season he played college football ... culminating in him earning All-American status in his lone year at Texas Tech. 

Bailey is the immediate impact edge rusher that NFL teams covet, with all the physical tools you could want - 33 3/4" arms, 96th percentile broad jump (10'9"), and 40-yard dash (4.50). He can step into the NFL and be a havoc creator as a rookie.

➡️ David Bailey prospect profile & scouting report

🔮 Final prediction: Who will the Jets take No. 2?

Arvell Reese (41%)

The Jets should take Reese, and it seemed like they would for months until about two weeks or so ago, when Bailey's name started popping up at No. 2 in mock drafts. Nobody knows for sure what New York is going to do, but taking Bailey over Reese would be a mistake.

Reese's upside is rare, and he's the No. 1 prospect in the class on the consensus board at a position he's still just learning to play. And even if you point to Bailey's production, Reese has him beat in pressures per pass rush (0.23 vs. 0.21).

Bailey had more than three times the pass rush opportunities Reese had in 2025, and if you multiply Reese's pressures (27) and sacks (6.5) by three, he hits 81 pressures and 19.5 sacks. And that's without mentioning the fact that Reese bends better than Bailey at the top of his rushes when running the arc.

But what makes this even sillier is the fact that Reese is the better run defender and offers more versatility as a player who can move around the front seven. He played 50.1% of his snaps as an edge rusher, 44.1% as an off-ball linebacker, and even 5.5% as a big nickel/overhang defender.

Mougey should want him for his All-Pro ceiling, and Glenn should want him for his fit. Arvell Reese, no matter what.