🏈 NFL Draft First-Round Predictions: Who Will Be Drafted in Round 1?

Only 32 players will hear their name called in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft tonight, and there's money to be made if you can correctly pick which prospects are drafted tonight when Round 1 begins at 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, NFL Network).

Below, I offer my NFL draft first-round predictions with live odds from prediction market apps for every top prospect in this year's draft and my picks to be drafted tonight in Pittsburgh - including why Ty Simpson will be drafted in Round 1 and the biggest names I expect to fall to the second round as part of our NFL draft predictions.

📊 Who will be drafted in 1st round?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

Everybody knows that Fernando Mendoza, Arvell Reese, David Bailey, and Jeremiyah Love will be first-round picks this year, as will the top receivers like Jordyn Tyson, Carnell Tate, and Makai Lemon. But with this being a weaker class than usual, there are fewer true blue-chip players that are guaranteed to be taken in Round 1, which makes for a very volatile and intriguing market to speculate on heading into the first round tonight. Roughly 23 players are considered "locks" to be drafted in the first round tonight with a 70% probability percentage or higher on Kalshi.

🔮 NFL draft first-round projections

Here are the 32 players I project to be taken in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, listed in order of their probability across prediction markets (and alphabetical):

• Caleb Downs (99%)
• Francis Mauigoa (99%)
• Fernando Mendoza (99%)
• Jordyn Tyson (99%)
• Kenyon Sadiq (99%)
• Mansoor Delane (99%)
• Makai Lemon (99%)
• Spencer Fano (99%)
• Sonny Styles (99%)
• Kadyn Proctor (98%
• Monroe Freeling (98%)
• Rueben Bain Jr. (98%)
• Dillon Thieneman (97%)
• Omar Cooper Jr. (91%)
• Blake Miller (81%)
• Keldric Faulk (80%)
• Akheem Mesidor (78%)
• Max Iheanachor (78%)
• KC Concepcion (75%)
• Ty Simpson (72%)
• Caleb Lomu (70%)
• Denzel Boston (70%)
• Colton Hood (70%)
• Malachi Lawrence (64%)
• Peter Woods (62%)
• Kayden McDonald (60%)
• Chris Johnson (61%)
• Jermod McCoy (54%)
• Brandon Cisse (52%)
• Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (40%)
• Jacob Rodriguez (31%)
• Jadarian Price (25%)

I fully expect Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson (72%) to be selected at the tail end of the first round by the Arizona Cardinals. Only twice in the last 15 years has just one quarterback been drafted in the first round, and I believe this year’s class will not be joining the 2013 and 2022 classes that had only one quarterback selected.

Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy (54%) may be the most talented cornerback in this year’s draft, but he has been dealing with a knee injury for quite some time. He has too much talent not to be taken, even with the injury risk. Meanwhile, Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (31%) flashes the versatility and instincts at linebacker that make him a modern defensive fit, with the ability to impact both the run game and coverage schemes. His consistent production, leadership traits, and high football IQ have scouts viewing him as a plug-and-play defender worthy of first-round consideration.

The biggest surprise I have going in Round 1 tonight is Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price (25%), who backed up love last year and was still one of the best backs in college football with 674 yards and 11 touchdowns along with two scores as a receiver. He'd be a great candidate for the defending champion Seattle Seahawks, who own the final pick at No. 32 in the first round.

📉 Surprise picks to fall out of Round 1

Not every top prospect can get drafted in the first 32 picks. These are the five players with the highest Kalshi probabilities to be drafted in Round 1 that I actually think will fall:

• Zion Young (46%)
• Avieon Terrell (41%)
• Chase Bisontis (38%)
• Treydan Stukes (38%)
• Cashius Howell (30%)

The big name here is Clemson cornerback Avieon Terrell (41%), who is likely sliding from the first round into the second round of this year's draft primarily due to a nagging hamstring injury that hindered his pre-draft workout process. While still considered a high-upside cornerback, his stock fell because he couldn’t showcase his athleticism during key workouts, raising durability concerns that could lead to his slide tonight.

🏈 More NFL draft predictions

See the live NFL draft odds for the top picks from the best NFL betting sites.

Ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft, we broke down every team's full draft capital, their biggest needs and ideal prospect fits, the latest mock draft consensus from industry experts, and our draft prediction for their first pick this week:

AFC East: Bills | Dolphins | Jets | Patriots

AFC North: Bengals | Browns | Ravens | Steelers

AFC South: Colts | Jaguars | Texans | Titans

AFC West: Broncos | Chargers | Chiefs | Raiders

NFC East: Commanders | Cowboys | Eagles | Giants

NFC North: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings

NFC South: Buccaneers | Falcons | Panthers | Saints

NFC West: 49ers | Cardinals | Rams | Seahawks