⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, April 23
Facing the power-packed New York Yankees is a tough test at the best of times, and now a rookie southpaw will need to navigate their gauntlet of a lineup.
That's why Giancarlo Stanton leads my home run predictions today as he gets set to square off against Payton Tolle, and the Yankees try to sweep the rival Red Sox at Fenway Park.
My MLB home run picks are also eyeing Corey Seager to do damage against Bubba Chandler with his command problems, and Jackson Merrill to lift off at Coors Field.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 23
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton home run (+434 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.87u | Has five extra-base hits in as many games recently, including two homers. |
| Corey Seager home run (+420 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.84u | His slugging percentage on fastballs indicates a turnaround is coming. |
| Jackson Merrill home run (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.82u | Faces a righty at Coors Field who's giving up missiles. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.53 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run (+434)
Payton Tolle will be making his season debut and fourth start for the Red Sox tonight.
Tolle is a highly regarded prospect, but being an inexperienced lefty often isn't a good time against the Yankees, and especially Giancarlo Stanton. He's registered five extra-base hits across his last five outings, including two homers.
Stanton's average exit velocity, barrel rate, and bat speed all sit in the 94th percentile or above, according to Baseball Savant. Meanwhile, Tolle gave up five homers over just 16 1/3 innings last year, and he showed significant command issues with his 4.4 BB/9.
📡 SBR Edge: A velocity king
Stanton's max exit velocity has sat in the top 1% leaguewide since data exists dating back to 2015, and this year (116.3 mph) is no exception.
π₯ More home run picks today
Corey Seager to hit a home run (+420)
Seager will face Bubba Chandler for much of his evening, the imposing young Pittsburgh Pirates hurler who throws fire. But Chandler's ability to harness that heat early in his career has been inconsistent. He sports a concerningly bloated 5.9 BB/9 across four starts this season, two of which have featured four-plus walks.
The shortstop can throttle a misplaced fastball, even with Chandler's velocity. Seager is slugging .641 against fastballs, and he boasts an 88th percentile barrel rate.
There have been some struggles early this season for Seager, but he's putting the ball in the air more than his career norm at 61% of the time, and the veteran's groundball rate is down from last year (39% now compared to 44.7%).
Jackson Merrill to hit a home run (+410)
This one is about the venue and pitcher matchup more so than the hitter, though Merrill can certainly do his part too.
Merrill gets to bask in the homer friendliness of Coors Field, and do it as a lefty facing a righty in Ryan Feltner, who gives up constant laser beams. Feltner's expected slugging allowed (.608) and expected ERA (6.96) both rest in the bottom 6% MLB-wide. Toss in a fast-rising hard-hit rate given up (50.0, up from 35.7 last year), and Feltner provides a juicy opportunity.
Feltner throws his four-seamer to lefties 33% of the time, and Merrill's expected slugging against heaters is .545.
🤑 More MLB props
Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NFRI bets today if you're looking to get a win early.
π Best home run parlay picks today
Capitalizing on inexperienced starting pitchers is partly a unifying theme today, with Stanton against Tolle and Seager facing Chandler and his command issues.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Giancarlo Stanton home run (+390)
- Corey Seager home run (+420)
- Jackson Merrill home run (+410)
Best odds: +12894 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 2.58u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-46-0 | -7.49 units β | -27.1% β |
| Home run picks | 4-27-0 | -0.35 units β | -6.14% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-5 | -0.40 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm remaining steady in my bankroll allocation amid a volatile market. But, much like yesterday when I recommended Matt Olson for a slightly larger investment and he went deep, today your target is Stanton.
As an added bonus alongside the flaws of the young Tolle who's in a tough spot, if the starter departs the game early Stanton will then get more opportunities against a Red Sox bullpen tied for the sixth-most homers allowed leaguewide.
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