⚾ Yankees vs. Red Sox Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 22)

The latest instalment in a legendary rivalry resulted in a 4-0 dud last night from the Boston Red Sox, with the New York Yankees smothering their AL East foes.

Now the Yankees vs. Red Sox win probability from the prediction market apps favors the Yanks taking the series, though the market is giving them only a slim margin, with the Bronx Bombers at 55%.  

The near tossup status is no doubt due to what should be a fierce mound duel between Max Fried and Ranger Suarez, with the latter really coming into form recently with his new team after early struggles.

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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Red Sox? Live MLB win probability

The end result of the win probability ahead of the second game in this Yankees-Red Sox series is the percentages being back to where both teams opened, with New York getting a 55% chance and Boston at 45% amid just over $22,000 in trading volume.

But that tells only a partial tale, as the Yankees shot up to 63.2% last night right after blanking the Red Sox 4-0. They stayed there for a while too before falling back down to the 55% neighborhood again.

The market is no doubt correcting an overreaction to New York's easy win while taking into account the presence of Ranger Suarez on the mound tonight for the Red Sox. He stumbled to begin his Red Sox tenure while allowing eight earned runs across his first two outings and 8 1/3 innings. But he's now put together two straight shutouts over a combined 14 innings.

His challenge is significant against a powerful Yankees offense that sits third in homers, especially with Max Fried opposing Suarez. Fried's hard-hit rate allowed sits at just 30.1%, with opposing hitters slugging only .200 off his sinker.

It'll be difficult for Suarez to get much run support, especially from a Red Sox offense averaging three runs per game over its last seven contests. 

My prediction: Yankees win. Suarez is rebounding, but he still isn't in peak form, especially when looking at his sinker, which is usually the hurler's most lethal weapon. It comes with an expected batting average of .332 right now, according to Baseball Savant.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Yankees vs. Red Sox?

There's no shock whatsoever to see Aaron Judge leading a home run probability market, and he's getting a 23% chance to go deep tonight amid just over $18,000 in trading volume.

He paces a trio of Yankees sluggers atop the market, with Giancarlo Stanton at 15% and Cody Bellinger at 10%. Roman Anthony and Trevor Story are the leading Red Sox hitters at 9% apiece.

Judge is soaring right now even by his already skyscraper-level standards. He's tied for second in MLB with nine home runs, six of which have come across his last nine games, a span when the megastar has also logged two doubles.

He destroys sinkers, one of the most-used pitches from Suarez. But Judge also boasts a 50% hard-hit rate against cutters, which Suarez throws 26% of the time to right-handed hitters.

My prediction: Judge to hit a home run. It's hard to go against Judge, especially when we toss in the wind forecasted to be blowing out of Fenway Park tonight at 8.1 mph. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our best home run predictions today, in which I'm also leaning on Judge.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Yankees vs. Red Sox?

There's been some meandering in this market, which started at a 46% chance of a run in the first inning before spiking to 48% and then falling back down to 43%. It now sits at 44% after just over $4,500 in trading volume.

It's easy to fall in line with the gradual falling of the percentage here. Yes, the Yankees are a decent YRFI team while boasting the ninth-best record in that regard at 13-10. But the Red Sox are tied for ninth in the NRFI standings at 12-11, largely because of their sputtering offense.

Boston has scored two runs or fewer 10 times across its first 23 games, and now that offense is in the middle of a series against a Yankees team that boasts an MLB-leading 2.84 ERA among its starters. Fried has made his contribution there, though he has allowed three first-inning runs. Suarez has given up just one across four starts.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Boston's offense is scuffling far too much to trust, and although he could get tagged later, Suarez has been impressively effective early in games. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Yankees vs. Red Sox win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Red Sox

• Date: Wednesday, April 22
• First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: Prime Video
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Max Fried (2-1, 2.97 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Ranger Suarez (1-1, 3.22 ERA)