⚾ Brewers vs. Tigers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, April 23

Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal looks to lead the Detroit Tigers to an interleague series win over the Milwaukee Brewers. Opposing Skubal is Brewers righty Brandon Sproat, with first pitch from Comerica Park in Detroit scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Tigers are a -225 betting favorite.

My Brewers vs. Tigers prediction backs Detroit’s runline odds to continue its home dominance despite Sproat coming off his best start with Milwaukee. I also expect Skubal to build off a double-digit strikeout performance in his last outing as part of my MLB picks, while Sproat’s struggles against left-handed batters leads to a great home run prop value play from a Detroit slugger.

⚾ Brewers vs. Tigers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.73 units

🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Tigers?

Milwaukee has scored two or fewer runs in three of the four games Brandon Sproat has appeared in this season. That is likely the Brewers’ ceiling for runs in this matchup, as the Tigers have outscored opponents 12-3 in consecutive wins in Skubal’s last two starts.

Score prediction: Tigers 6, Brewers 2

💰 Brewers vs. Tigers prediction & best bet

Tigers -1.5 (+105)

Detroit should be much better than its 3-2 record in Skubal’s starts. The Tigers scored two runs in those losses, but erupted for 20 runs in the three wins, with a margin of victory of five runs per game.

Prior to Detroit losing back-to-back games to begin the week, it won eight of nine, while allowing two runs or fewer eight times over that span. Assuming Skubal pitches as dominantly, the Tigers should be able to muster up enough offense against a pitcher with a 2.1 HR/9 rate and control issues (11 walks in 17 innings).

🔥 Best Brewers vs. Tigers player prop bet

Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 strikeouts (+130)

Tarik Skubal is coming off a dominant 10-strikeout performance at Fenway Park against the Red Sox in which he induced whiffs on 44% of swings, and either got called strikes or whiffs on 30 of his 89 pitches. 

Skubal now has the most double-digit strikeout games since the start of 2024 (including the postseason) with 16. Overall, it was his 18th career start with 10-plus punchouts, and he is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and a 17:4 K:BB ratio in his last two starts.

I am not calling for another double-digit strikeout game, but the Brewers do rank 12th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. They also have a limited ceiling for big innings, ranking 19th in wRC+ and 27th in ISO in that split.

💣 Brewers vs. Tigers home run prediction

Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (+550)

Brandon Sproat has allowed four homers in his four appearances this year, equating to a troubling 2.1 HR/9 rate.

Sproat has done a decent job preventing hard contact, as he ranks in the 22nd and 28th percentile in hard-hit rate and barrels, respectively. But he has also been lit up by left-handed batters, allowing a .357/.500/.643 slash line in that split, which pales in comparison to the damage righties have done (.242/.306/.455).

Kerry Carpenter has hit all four of his home runs off of righties. And while many would say he is struggling to this point, his 113 OPS+ is only slightly worse than his 114 OPS+ last year when he finished with a career-high 26 home runs.

🚀 Brewers vs. Tigers same-game parlay

If Skubal turns in another dominant performance, that helps Detroit's case of covering the runline, especially since he has averaged nearly eight strikeouts per start in his three wins. In order to give myself a more realistic chance to cash a three-leg same-game parlay, I am swapping Carpenter's home run prop with the Under on Gary Sanchez's hits.

Sanchez is 0-for-10 in his career against Skubal, and is the only current Brewers slugger with more than six career at-bats against the southpaw.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Brewers vs. Tigers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

If I think a favorite is going to win, I normally opt for laying the -1.5 runs on the runline if their moneyline odds are anything steeper than -145. That is why I'm getting more aggressive with that wager even though Detroit is facing a Brewers team that has won 92-plus games in four of the last five seasons, and is 11-6 in interleague games thus far.

For those that think Milwaukee can remain competitive in this game but maybe aren't as confident in it pulling the outright upset, I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Under, as a pitcher's duel is likely its best path to victory against Skubal.

📊 Live Brewers vs. Tigers odds

Detroit ranges from a -210 to -230 moneyline betting favorite. BetMGM is at the low end of the market at -210, and is one of the only sports books that has lowered from its opening number (-220). Milwaukee has been a popular underdog so far getting 37% of the early wagers, so those top sports betting sites that have raised their odds are likely seeing sharp action come in on the home favorites.

The O/U is unanimously at 7.0 runs across the market. FanDuel was the only sportsbook who opened slightly lower at 6.5, but quickly aligned with all other competing shops, but charges some of the highest juice to back the Under (-120, 54.55% implied odds).

📈 Brewers vs. Tigers betting trends

🚑 Brewers vs. Tigers injuries

📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Tigers

• Date: Thursday, April 23
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Comerica Park (Detroit)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Brewers starter: Brandon Sproat (0-1, 6.88 ERA)
• Tigers starter: Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.08 ERA)