🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Picks for Wednesday, April 22
📡 SBR Edge: SGA Goes Under as Heavy Favorite
My NBA player props tonight feature two bets for each game, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points (-116) and Jalen Green Over 18.5 points (-114) accounting for the Suns vs. Thunder player props. Gilgeous-Alexander has gone Under in three straight games as a double-digit favorite, while Green has gone Over in 15 of his last 21 overall. I feature Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made (+104) as part of my Magic vs. Pistons player props, along with an SGP at +1100 odds.
🏀 Best NBA player props tonight: April 22
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green Over 18.5 points | -114 via FanDuel | 1.71u -> 1.5u | Has gone Over in 15 of his last 21 games |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points | -116 via DraftKings | 1.16u -> 1u | Has gone Under in 3 straight games as a double-digit favorite |
| Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made | +104 via DraftKings | 0.96u -> 1u | Has gone Over in 3 of 4 games vs. ORL this season |
Total wagered: 3.83 units | Max profit: 3 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet tonight
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Jalen Green Over 18.5 points (-114) at Thunder
Green has played a critical role in the Suns’ offense since early March, surging from 13.9 points per game in February to 21.8 in March and scoring 20 or more points in 15 of his last 21 games.
He has attempted 16 or more shots in each of the Suns’ three postseason contests while averaging 29.3 points in that span. FanDuel lists Green Over 18.5 points at -114, but this bet is good up to -140 on the best sports betting sites.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
The Thunder are the betting favorite in the NBA Finals odds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points (-116) vs. Suns
This line seems a little high to me after Gilgeous-Alexander scored just 25 points in the Thunder’s Game 1 blowout win.
The problem with betting Gilgeous-Alexander’s Over tonight is that the Thunder are a 17.5-point favorite, meaning it’s likely Oklahoma City will be winning by double digits in the fourth quarter, and Gilgeous-Alexander will play fewer minutes. He has scored 25 or fewer points in three straight games as a double-digit favorite.
Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 points is -116 at DraftKings, but I would play this up to -135 on the best NBA betting sites.
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made (+104) vs. Magic
Robinson led the Pistons with 7 three-point attempts per game in the regular season, shooting 41% from beyond the arc. More importantly, he has made three or more 3-pointers in three of his four games against the Magic this season.
The Pistons made just 31% of their 3-point attempts in Game 1, so I expect Detroit players across the board to shoot better from beyond the arc tonight. DraftKings lists his Over 2.5 three-pointers made at +104, but I'd play this up to -110 on the best sports betting apps.
📊 Duncan Robinson player prop trends
Here’s a look at how Duncan Robinson has performed recently, as well as against the Magic:
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Magic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 points | -130 via BetMGM | 3-2 ✅ | 2-3 ❌ |
| Over 2.5 rebounds | +122 via FanDuel | 1-4 ❌ | 3-2 ✅ |
| Over 1.5 assists | -160 via BetMGM | 4-1 ✅ | 5-0 ✅ |
| Over 2.5 three-pointers made | +104 via DraftKings | 4-1 ✅ | 4-1 ✅ |
Robinson is averaging a median of three 3-pointers over his last five games against the Magic.
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | Under 16.5 points | -110 |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | Over 15.5 points | -110 |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | Over 17.5 points | -105 |
| Kevin Huerter | Pistons | Over 9.5 points + rebounds + assists | -125 |
| Devin Booker | Suns | Under 4.5 rebounds | -120 |
🚀 Best NBA parlay picks tonight
The Pistons are ranked 1st in the East in defensive efficiency, so it’s reasonable to assume they will hold the Magic to fewer than 105 points - which helps the Under hit. Parlaying Cade Cunningham’s and Robinson’s Overs on 3-pointers offers a nice boost to this +1100 parlay, since they’re negatively correlated with the Under.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet tonight
- Magic-Pistons Under 218.5
- Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made
- Cade Cunningham Over 2.5 three-pointers made
Best odds: +1100 via bet365 (0.23u -> 2.5u)
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 131-156-4 | -18.04 units ❌ | -5.9% ❌ |
| Player props | 117-112-4 | -16.51 units ❌ | -5.9% ❌ |
| Parlays | 10-39 | -0.64 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units ❌ | -13.1% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-30 | -1.01 units ❌ | -2.5% ❌ |
| Player props | 18-13 | +3.02 units ✅ | 10.5% ✅ |
| Parlays | 2-12 | -1.64 units ❌ | -38.4% ❌ |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units ❌ | -52.5% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
I risked 1.71 units on Green’s points prop - which is more than I would usually risk on a standard player prop - because I’m confident his price on FanDuel is too low right now.
I risked less on Gilgeous-Alexander and Robinson, as while I like the bets directionally, they’re priced closer to where I’d set them. If I believed I had a larger edge, I’d be willing to risk up to 2.5 units per bet - or up to 5 units in a once-in-a-year scenario.
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