⚾ Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, April 23

The New York Yankees are seeking their sixth straight win, and just as importantly, an early-season sweep on the road against a key longtime division rival.

The Yankees have outscored the Red Sox 8-1 across the first two games of the series, and New York's pitching is well-positioned to do some stifling again in this Cam Schlittler vs. Payton Tolle matchup.

I'm eyeing the Under and Schlitter thriving as part of my Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction and MLB picks. It all starts tonight at 6:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park (FOX), with the Yankees as the -148 favorites.

⚾ Yankees vs. Red Sox picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 1.10 units | Max profit: 2.62 units

🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Red Sox?

The Yankees will make yet another early-season statement while sweeping their division rivals on the road, and they'll do it with Schittler dominating. The Red Sox have scored just one run in this series, and that's in part why this game is featured in our best NRFI bets today.

Score prediction: Yankees 5, Red Sox 2

💰 Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet

Under 8 (-112)

The woes of Boston's offense are set to continue, especially if rising star Roman Anthony sits out again due to a back issue.

The sputtering start from the Red Sox can largely be attributed to a putrid offense ranked 26th in scoring. Boston has been even more miserable recently while averaging just 2.1 runs per game across the team's past six outings, with an outlier 8-6 win amid five losses during that stretch doing much of the lifting.

There may never be a good time to face Schlittler, but right now is especially bad for the Red Sox.

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Red Sox player prop bet

Cam Schlittler Over 16.5 outs recorded (-104)

Schlittler is a quickly emerging flamethrower who averages 97.3 mph on his fastball, and that's led to a skyrocketing K/9 of 11.7. His chase and walk rates also sit in the 97th percentile or above, according to Baseball Savant.

That means he can mow down Red Sox hitters while not providing them with free opportunities through walks, which would drive up his pitch count in the process. A weak Red Sox offense isn't positioned to create its own chances, too. Putting the ball in play with any authority has been an immense struggle, with Boston's .333 slugging percentage sitting dead last.

Schlittler leans on strikeouts, which can result in more work and less efficiency. However, to counter that his groundball rate is up notably early this season, sitting at 47.0% after finishing at 36.4% last campaign.

💣 Yankees vs. Red Sox home run prediction

Amed Rosario to hit a home run (+790)

I went with Giancarlo Stanton in my home run predictions today while eyeing a more conservative way to pick on Payton Tolle, the promising Red Sox southpaw who's in a tough spot tonight in his season debut and fourth MLB start ever.

But the home run market is the ideal place to put a little sprinkle on a long shot now and then, and Amed Rosario provides the perfect opportunity. The infielder has clubbed four homers, and even more impressively, he boasts an expected slugging of .645 that sits in the 97th percentile. He's also registered a career .802 OPS against lefties.

That should play quite well as a right-handed hitter against Tolle, the lefty who surrendered five bombs across only 16 1/3 innings last year.

🚀 Yankees vs. Red Sox same-game parlay

I'm getting a little more aggressive here while leaning on Schlitter's strikeout potential to cash the Under. It's a high number, hence the appealing plus-money odds, but still a plateau he can reach against the feeble Red Sox offense given the hurler's high-end command and velocity.

Schlittler has recorded seven-plus strikeouts in four of his five outings this season.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.

💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Red Sox: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Confidence in both Schlittler and in Boston's offense to keep flailing has led to a full-unit play on the Under and my primary player prop.

I'm taking every opportunity to fade a spiraling Red Sox offense, especially with Anthony either out or ailing. Five of the team's regulars enter tonight with a strikeout rate above 25%

📊 Live Yankees vs. Red Sox odds

The Yankees are unsurprisingly getting much of the attention across the main game markets, with the favored New York club receiving 84% of the action on the moneyline and 80% to cover the run line through DraftKings.

Action is more split on the total, with the Over getting the narrow edge at 53%. The number has dropped since mostly starting at 8.5 through the best MLB betting sites, and it's unlikely to move down much further given that action. It shows the public is correctly forcasting a bulldozing from Schlittler against Boston's hapless offense.

📈 Yankees vs. Red Sox betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Red Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Red Sox

• Date: Thursday, April 23
• First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (2-1, 1.95 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Payton Tolle (0-1, 6.06 ERA in 2025)