🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: De'Aaron Fox & LeBron James Best Bets (Sunday, April 12)
📡 SBR Edge: Swipa Leads Spurs in Scoring
My NBA player props tonight feature Paolo Banchero Over 20.5 points (-119), as he has gone over this line in six of his last nine meetings with the Celtics. My next NBA best bet is De'Aaron Fox Over 18.5 points (-107). He will potentially be the Spurs' only active player tonight who averages more than 14 PPG on the season. I wrap up my NBA picks with LeBron James Over 9.5 assists (+100), as he has been cashing this prop consistently when playing without Luka Doncic.
π Best NBA player props tonight: April 12
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| π° Pick | π‘ Best odds | βοΈ Bet size | π§ Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero Over 20.5 points | -119 via DraftKings | 1.19u -> 1u | Has gone Over in 6 of last 9 vs. BOS |
| De'Aaron Fox Over 18.5 points | -107 via DraftKings | 1.07u -> 1u | Will potentially be only SA player with 14+ PPG |
| LeBron James Over 9.5 assists | +100 via FanDuel | 1u -> 1u | Has recorded 10+ assists in last 7 games w/o Luka |
Total wagered: 3.2 units | Max profit: 3 units
π° Best NBA player prop bet tonight
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Paolo Banchero Over 20.5 points (-119) at Celtics
Iβve liked Banchero to go over on his points the last few times heβs played the Celtics, as heβs been super aggressive against Boston over the past couple of seasons.
He has gone over this number in six of his last nine meetings with the Celtics and is a strong candidate for a ladder bet, as he has scored 25+ in five of the last seven matchups. DraftKings lists his Over at 20.5 points (-119), but this bet is good up to -140 on the best sports betting sites.
π₯ More NBA player prop picks
The Spurs have the second-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
De'Aaron Fox Over 18.5 points (-107) vs. Nuggets
With Victor Wembanyama out and Stephon Castle questionable for tonight, Fox will potentially be the only Spurs player active who averages more than 14 PPG on the season.
Since Wembanyama has been ruled out - as he has already reached the 65-game threshold in our NBA awards eligibility tracker - we should get solid CLV on this bet. His Over is listed at 18.5 points (-107) at DraftKings, but I would play this up to -125 on the best NBA betting sites.
De'Aaron Fox player prop trends
Hereβs a look at how De'Aaron Fox has performed recently, as well as against the Nuggets:
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Nuggets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 18.5 points | -107 via DraftKings | 2-3 β | 2-3 β |
| Over 3.5 rebounds | -146 via FanDuel | 3-2 β | 3-2 β |
| Over 6.5 assists | -126 via DraftKings | 2-3 β | 3-2 β |
| Over 1.5 three-pointers made | -133 via DraftKings | 2-3 β | 3-2 β |
While Fox has gone over this line in just two of his last five games overall, he has scored 22 or more points in each of his last three without Wembanyama.
LeBron James Over 9.5 assists (+100) vs. Jazz
James going Over on his assists when Doncic isnβt playing has been one of my favorite bets recently.
Doncic, James, and Austin Reaves lead the Lakers in assists per game this season, and James is the only one of the three who will potentially play tonight.
If James plays, this bet should cash fairly easily, as he has dished out 10+ assists in each of his last seven games when Doncic doesnβt play. FanDuel lists this at +100, but I would play it up to -115 on the best sports betting apps.
LeBron James player prop trends
Hereβs a look at how LeBron James has performed recently, as well as against the Jazz:
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Jazz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 24.5 points | -138 via FanDuel | 3-2 β | 1-4 β |
| Over 7.5 rebounds | +108 via FanDuel | 2-3 β | 0-5 β |
| Over 9.5 assists | +100 via FanDuel | 3-2 β | 2-3 β |
| Over 1.5 three-pointers made | -146 via FanDuel | 2-3 β | 2-3 β |
I would put little to no stock in Jamesβ recent performances against the Jazz, as he will play a much larger role on the Lakers tonight if heβs available. James is averaging 28 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 12.7 assists in his last three games without Doncic and Reaves.
π Best NBA parlay picks tonight
The Nuggets keeping this matchup close means Fox will play more minutes in the fourth quarter and have more opportunities to score. Bet365 lists this two-legger at +375, while this same parlay is just +212 at FanDuel.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet tonight
- De'Aaron Fox 20+ points
- Nuggets +11
Best odds: +375 via bet365 (0.27u -> 1u)
π΅ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 105-125-4 | -19.04 units β | -7.3% β |
| Player props | 97-98-4 | -20.53 units β | -8.2% β |
| Parlays | 7-27 | -0.01 units β | -0.1% β |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units β | 87% β |
π‘ How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
I'm allocating 3.2 units for the bets in this article, which is what I would usually risk on three player props.
While I'm confident in all of these bets directionally, they aren't priced too far from where I'd set them. If I thought I had a larger edge, I would risk up to 2.5 units per bet - or up to 5 units in a once-in-a-year type scenario. I treat 1 unit as 1% of my bankroll.
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