🏀 Warriors vs. Suns Prediction: NBA Play-In Odds & Picks for Friday, April 17
The Golden State Warriors make the trip to Phoenix to battle the Suns in the NBA Play-In Tournament on Friday night, with the Western Conference's 8 seed on the line. Tip-off from Mortgage Matchup Center is at 10 p.m. ET (streaming on Prime Video), and the Suns are a 3.5-point betting favorite.
My Warriors vs. Suns prediction digs into why Golden State should keep this game close, while highlighting a player who will likely stay aggressive with his team's season on the line.
π Warriors vs. Suns picks & odds: NBA Play-In Tournament
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds for the playoffs.
| π° Pick | βοΈ Bet size (units) | π§ Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1.1u β 1u | Suns are 1-7 ATS in last 8 games |
| Under 219.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 0.54u β 0.5u | Under went 3-1 in 4 regular-season meetings |
| Jalen Green Over 18.5 points (-118 via FanDuel) | 1.18u β 1u | Has gone Over in 14 of his last 19 games |
Total wagered: 2.55 units | Max profit: 2.5 units
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π Who will win Warriors vs. Suns?
I like the Warriors to win by one point on Friday.
It's hard to gauge how good the Warriors are, as Stephen Curry played only 43 games in the regular season, and veteran teams tend to preserve energy until the postseason. I believe the Warriors we saw against the LA Clippers are closer to what we will see from Golden State moving forward.
Score prediction: Warriors 108, Suns 107
π° Warriors vs. Suns prediction & best bet
The Warriors have the 16th-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Warriors +3.5 (-110)
The Warriors are a veteran team and will likely play their best basketball in the postseason - similar to LeBron James' Cavaliers teams before he went to the Lakers. For that reason, their poor regular-season stats shouldn't downgrade them drastically in the playoffs.
The Suns, meanwhile, have covered just once in their last eight games and couldn't beat a Trail Blazers squad that had very little postseason experience on its roster.
Warriors +3.5 is -110 at BetMGM, but I would be comfortable playing this up to +2.5 on the best sports betting sites.
π₯ Best Warriors vs. Suns player prop bet
Our NBA playoff series odds break down the first-round matchups.
Jalen Green Over 18.5 points (-118)
Jalen Green has played a huge role in this Suns offense since early March. After averaging 13.9 points per game in February, he jumped up to 21.8 per game in March and has scored 20+ points in 14 of his last 19 games.
He also led the Suns in points and shot attempts on Tuesday. His Over 18.5 points is -118 at FanDuel, but I would play this up to -135 on the best sports betting apps. Meanwhile, our Shane Thurston likes Green to go Under 8.5 rebounds + assists (-130) in his Warriors vs. Suns player props.
π Jalen Green player prop trends
Hereβs a look at how Jalen Green has performed recently, as well as against the Warriors:
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Warriors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 18.5 points | -118 via FanDuel | 3-2 β | 0-5 β |
| Over 4.5 rebounds | -106 via FanDuel | 1-4 β | 3-2 β |
| Over 3.5 assists | +118 via DraftKings | 2-3 β | 1-4 β |
| Over 2.5 three-pointers made | +140 via Pinnacle | 1-4 β | 0-5 β |
Greenβs last five games against the Warriors came in last seasonβs playoffs, when he was with the Rockets.
He averaged 13.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game in that series, compared to 21 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game in the 2024β25 regular season. However, Jimmy Butler was active for the Warriors in that series; he is out for the season this time around after undergoing ACL surgery.
π Warriors vs. Suns same-game parlay
The Warriors keeping this game close means that Green will play more minutes at the end of the fourth quarter and will have more opportunities to get up shots. Bet365 offers this parlay at +340, while FanDuel lists it at just +284.
💵 Warriors vs. Suns SGP picks
- Warriors +3
- Jalen Green 20+ points
Best odds: +340 via bet365 (0.29u -> 1u)
π΅ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 113-135-4 | -19.06 units β | -6.9% β |
| Player props | 102-103-4 | -20.49 units β | -7.9% β |
| Parlays | 8-30 | +0.08 units β | 0.7% β |
| Spreads | 2-1 | +1.4 units β | 35.9% β |
| Totals | 1-1 | -0.05 units β | -4.5% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Warriors vs. Suns: NBA Play-In Tournament strategy
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
I risked 1.1u on the spread, as I believe the market is underreacting to how well the Warriors played in the 9-10 game, but the number is not ridiculous enough for me to wager more. I only risked 0.54u on the Over/Under because, while I like the bet directionally, the total is not set far from where Iβd price it. For my Green prop, I risked 1.18u because, even though it's early in the betting cycle, FanDuel is among the best NBA betting sites when it comes to pricing player props, so I don't want to be too aggressive.
π Live Warriors vs. Suns odds: NBA Play-In Tournament
This line opened at Suns -3 (-110) at Circa on Thursday morning. A little money has since come in on Phoenix, but I expect this game to return to Suns -3 (-110) across the board before tipoff.
π Warriors vs. Suns betting trends
| Warriors | Statistic | Suns |
|---|---|---|
| 37-45 | Record | 45-37 |
| 35-47-1 | ATS record | 46-34-3 |
| 50-33 | O/U record | 38-45 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 115 | Offensive rating | 115.4 |
| 115.6 | Defensive rating | 112.9 |
| -0.6 | Net rating | 1.5 |
π Warriors vs. Suns injuries
πΊ How to watch Warriors vs. Suns: NBA Play-In Tournament
- Date: Friday, April 17
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: Streaming on Prime Video
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