⛳ Masters Win Probability (LIVE): Best Chances to Win Entering Round 2

Defending champion Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns shared the first-round lead of the 2026 Masters, and McIlroy tops the updated Masters win probability at Kalshi with 54 holes to go.

McIlroy and Burns were both -5 after Round 1. Patrick Reed, Jason Day, and Kurt Kitayama were -3 through 18 holes. Pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler is -2 entering Friday. Bryson DeChambeau is +4.

⛳ Live Masters win probability: Who will win the 2026 Masters (Round 2)?

There has been over $250 million traded on the 2026 Masters champion market at Kalshi.

A $100 investment on McIlroy at the 25% probability will return a profit of $300. The same trade on Scheffler would return $400 in profit.

Masters leaderboard for Round 2

💰 Who's most likely to win the 2026 Masters?

Rory McIlroy, the defending Masters champion, is most likely to win the 2026 Masters after the first round. He has a 25% chance to defend his title at Augusta National Golf Course, according to Kalshi traders.

Sam Burns, who was first in the clubhouse at -5 on Thursday, has a 6.9% win probability.

👉 Who will win the 2026 Masters?

Rory McIlroy (25%)

I'm all in on McIlroy to defend his Masters title after seeing his play in Round 1. McIlroy gained 2.33 strokes on the greens in the first round, as he's putting pressure-free at Augusta National for the first time.

⏰ Masters win probabilities: First-round leader

Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns share the first-round lead at the Masters, which means Yes contracts on both golfers were paid out as winners, settling at $1 per share.

👦 Masters win probabilities: Top Amateur

Ethan Fang, a 20-year-old from Plano, Texas, is the favorite to be the Masters Top Amateur through Round 1. Fang is +2 and holds a 2-stroke lead over Jackson Herrington and the rest of the Ameteurs.

⚖️ How to trade on the Masters

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple yes/no contracts. For the 2026 Masters, that means markets tied to questions like whether Scottie Scheffler wins at Augusta, if Rory McIlroy finally completes the career Grand Slam, or which player claims the low round of the tournament.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think Scheffler will win the Masters and buy a "Yes" contract at 30 cents, that implies a 30% chance. If Scheffler wins, the contract settles at $1, netting you 70 cents per share. If he doesn't, it settles at $0.

Prices fluctuate in real time as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the crowd's collective expectations - and shifts with every round, every leaderboard move, and every weather delay across four days at Augusta National.

How does Kalshi differ from sports betting?

Sportsbooks vs. Kalshi - the key differences

If you've ever placed a bet at a sportsbook, Kalshi will feel familiar but work differently in a few important ways.

At a traditional sportsbook, you bet against the house at a fixed line. The book sets the odds, builds in a margin (the "vig"), and you either win or lose at those terms. For the Masters, that might look like Scheffler at +300 to slip on the green jacket - meaning a $100 bet returns $300 profit if he wins.

On Kalshi, there is no house. You trade directly with other users in an open market. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities rather than traditional American odds. A contract priced at 20 cents implies a 20% chance of winning - the same information as American odds, just presented differently. There is no vig baked into a fixed line; instead, the spread between the buy and sell price is how the market operates.

The flexibility advantage

The other major difference is flexibility. A sportsbook bet is locked in once placed. On Kalshi, you can sell your contract at any time before the tournament ends - locking in a profit if the price has moved in your favor, or cutting your losses if your contender shoots himself out of contention with a double on Amen Corner. This makes Kalshi feel less like gambling and more like trading, where strategy and timing matter as much as picking the right champion.

Why trade on Kalshi instead of a sportsbook?

Four key advantages

Kalshi offers four key advantages for Masters prediction markets:

• Flexibility: Unlike a locked-in sportsbook futures bet, you can sell your contract at any time before the outcome is decided — especially valuable across four unpredictable days at Augusta, where leaderboards can swing dramatically after every round
• Transparency: You trade against other users in an open market, which can surface better value than a sportsbook futures line where the house always has an edge
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, audited environment - a level of oversight most offshore sportsbooks don't offer
• Wider availability: Kalshi operates in many U.S. states where traditional sports betting is not yet legal, making Masters markets accessible to a broader audience

💵 More Masters picks & predictions

See all of our golf picks from the best Masters betting sites ahead of the 2026 Masters.