🏝️ Who Will Win Survivor 50? Best Odds at Prediction Markets
Another episode of Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans is in the books, and the latest twist claimed two victims. Coach Wade and Chrissy Hofbeck were eliminated as a pair, leaving just 11 players in the game.
Heading into Episode 9: I Deserve All Of This, we're looking at prediction markets for who will win Survivor 50. Aubry Bracco remains the overwhelming favorite, with her odds at 69%. That said, her chances of winning have tanked quite a bit since surpassing 90% in February.
📊 Who will win Survivor 50?
Entering episode 9 of Survivor 50, Aubry Bracco is still a huge favorite, trading at 69 cents to win. She was targeted last week, but was ultimately saved thanks to the quick thinking of Rick Devens at tribal council. The pair was able to create enough doubt to keep the votes off of them. Bracco still has an uphill battle to get the win, but with just 11 players left in the game, she's best positioned out of anyone in the "middle" alliance.
You can currently buy Bracco "yes" for 69 cents. In most cases, the price in cents for the "yes" directly matches the chance an option has of being successful. However, in rare instances, there is a cent or two discrepancy.
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Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
What do those percentage chances mean?
For many who are new to prediction markets, it's handy to put the Kalshi percentage chances into American odds. We do this by using an odds converter, converting the percentage chances into implied odds. Here's a snapshot of all the player's chances of winning after the premiere, along with their American odds.
| Player | Kalshi percentage chance | American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 69% | -222 |
| Cirie Fields | 20% | +400 |
| Rizo Velovic | 4% | +2400 |
| Jonathan Young | 4% | +2400 |
| Joe Hunter | 4% | +2400 |
| Christian Hubicki | <1% | +10000 |
| Emily Flippen | <1% | +10000 |
| Ozzy Lusth | <1% | +10000 |
| Rick Devens | <1% | +10000 |
| Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick | <1% | +10000 |
| Tiffany Nicole Ervin | <1% | +10000 |
🔮 Survivor 50 prediction
Bracco is the leader here, and there are plenty of reasons for that. She has plenty of experience with three seasons under her belt (32, 34, 38), including a runner-up finish in her debut and a final five showing in her second appearance. At 69 cents, I still don't think there is a lot of value in backing her to win, but if her odds drop below 65%, I may consider taking a chance on her. For now, I'm still trying to beat her.
After episode 8, I'm picking Rizo Velovic to win Survivor 50. In episode 5, Velovic survived despite all odds stacked against him, and he also managed to hold onto his idol while bonding so well with Cirie Fields that she told him about her extra vote.
Velovic is one of the most dangerous players with an idol in his hand, as he showed during Season 49 when he used it as a tool to help his alliance overcome a massive deficit. Velovic had a cool-off episode in episode 6, as Ozzy Lusth chose him to go to Exile Island with him. However, in episode 7, he was right back in the middle of the action, calming down Coach Wade before a very impactful tribal council.
In episode 8, he was briefly targeted, but his relationship with Fields proved to be fruitful, as she immediately defended her ally and turned the votes away from him. Velovic will have to overcome being the youngest and most unknown player of the season, but if he sits at the final tribal council, he currently has a winning resume.
Long shot pick
Six of the 11 remaining players have odds of less than 1% to win this game. Therefore, finding a long shot is easy; it's just about picking the right one.
While I had been backing Jonathan Young in recent weeks, it's time to turn my attention to Devens. Devens felt that he was in trouble in episode 8, and he masterfully used the fake idol that he and Christian Hubicki had planted at tribal council earlier in the season to his advantage.
Now, the entire tribe thinks he has an idol, which could be good or bad. However, I have faith in Devens, as the lie he told Bracco at tribal council was brilliant, and he has the game knowledge and relationships to make this situation work for him. Don't be surprised if his odds jump over 1% before the start of next episode.
🏝️ Who is competing
Here is a look at the 24 players that took to the beaches of Fiji to compete in season 50, listed alphabetically.
| Contestant | Age | Appearances (season number) | Best finish | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 39 | 3 (32, 34, 38) | Runner-up season 32 | |
| 31 | 1 (46) | 6th jury member season 46 | Voted out Episode 3 | |
| 27 | 1 (46) | Runner-up season 46 | Voted out Episode 5 | |
| Rick Devens | 41 | 1 (38) | 13th jury member season 38 | |
| 51 | 3 (2, 8, 20) | Runner-up season 2 | Voted out Episode 6 | |
| Tiffany Ervin | 34 | 1 (46) | 10th jury member season 46 | |
| Cirie Fields | 54 | 4 (12, 16, 20, 34) + Australia (13) | 8th jury member season 16 | |
| Emily Flippen | 30 | 1 (45) | 5th jury member season 45 | |
| 31 | 1 (48) | Winner season 48 | Medically removed Episode 1 | |
| 54 | 1 (35) | Runner-up season 35 | Voted out Episode 8 | |
| Christian Hubicki | 39 | 1 (37) | 7th jury member season 37 | |
| Joe Hunter | 45 | 1 (48) | Second runner-up season 48 | |
| 31 | 1 (48) | 8th jury member season 48 | Voted out Episode 6 | |
| 35 | 1 (37) | Second runner-up season 37 | Voted out Episode 5 | |
| Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick | 45 | 3 (10, 11, 20) | Runner-up season 11 | |
| 47 | 2 (1, 8) | 7th jury member season 8 | Voted out Episode 1 | |
| 31 | 1 (49) | Winner season 49 | Voted out Episode 2 | |
| Oscar "Ozzy" Lusth | 43 | 4 (13, 16, 23, 34) | Runner-up season 13 | |
| 34 | 1 (47) | 7th jury member season 47 | Voted out Episode 6 | |
| 28 | 1 (45) | Winner season 45 | Voted out Episode 7 | |
| Rizo Velovic | 25 | 1 (49) | 8th jury member season 49 | |
| 53 | 3 (18, 20, 23) | Runner-up season 23 | Voted out Episode 8 | |
| 54 | 1 (37) | Runner-up season 37 | Voted out Episode 4 | |
| Jonathan Young | 32 | 1 (42) | 8th jury member season 42 |
The season features three previous winners, all from recent seasons: Dee Valladares in season 45, Kyle Fraser season 48, and Savannah Louie in season 49. All previous winners have been eliminated. We also have eight runners-up, and two second-runners-up.
Cirie and Ozzy both return for a fifth season of the American version of the game, although Cirie also has an Australian season under her belt.
🗳️ Fan votes
Most of the fan votes have already been revealed. Before the season began, we learned that the tribe colors would be orange, teal, and magenta, and the finale would return to Los Angeles for a live show.
We found out during the premiere that fans voted not to give the tribes rice or supplies. We also saw an idol appear, showing fans voted for them to remain in action, and we saw a dynamic advantage to come out.
In episode 3, we also learned that fans voted "Yes" for a tribe swap, as the original tribes were disbanded and three new tribes of seven were created.
Since then, we have learned that fans voted for "I love twists - bring them on!" and "A decorative bird" as the immunity necklace. Now, only two questions remain to be answered.
Here are a look at the votes yet to be disclosed:
- Final four fire-making -> "Keep it" or "Lose it"
- Final four challenge -> "Pinball Wizard" or "The Obstacle Course" or "Simmotion"
📖 How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Oscars, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.
💡 Why should I wager on Survivor 50 at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
❓ Survivor 50 FAQs
Who is the favorite to win Survivor 50?
Aubry Bracco is trading as the favorite to win Survivor 50 on Kalshi, with odds sitting over 69% following the eighth episode.
When does Survivor 50 start?
Survivor 50 started on Feb. 25, 2026.
How do I watch Survivor 50?
You can watch the Survivor 50 live on CBS, or stream on Paramount+. Episodes air at 8 p.m. ET.
Which returning winners are appearing on Survivor 50?
Dee Valladares in season 45, Kyle Fraser in season 48, and Savannah Louie in season 49 are the three previous winners returning for Survivor season 50. All have been eliminated for the game.
Who was the first player voted out on Survivor 50?
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty was the first player voted out. She was the lone contestant from Season 1.
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