🩸 Mike Malott vs. Gilbert Burns Prediction, Picks & Odds: Veteran Burns to Leverage Experience

Canada's own Mike Malott and his Brazilian counterpart Gilbert Burns have both successfully made weight, and the main event for UFC Fight Night Winnipeg is officially ready to go. Fans at the Canada Life Centre will undoubtedly be cheering for their fellow countryman, but I'm backing the former title challenger Burns to spring the upset in my Mike Malott vs. Gilbert Burns prediction and UFC Fight Night Winnipeg betting preview.

Preliminary card action gets underway at 5 p.m. ET, while the main card is scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET. All the fights will be available on Paramount+. Current betting odds have Mike Malott as a (-280) betting favorite versus the underdog Gilbert Burns (+235).

🩸 Mike Malott vs. Gilbert Burns predictions: UFC Winnipeg

See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Total wagered: 3.1 units | Max profit: 7.42 units

💰 Mike Malott vs. Gilbert Burns best bet: Over 2.5 (-105)

Both fighters' respective game plans should favor the over 2.5 rounds, and I'm looking to cash regardless of which man puts his best foot forward. Malott is fighting in a scheduled five-round contest for the first time in his career and will want to properly pace himself and keep things tight and technical.

Burns will rely on getting the Canadian into the later rounds to take advantage of his suspect cardio, and he's gone on record this week promising a much more tactical approach than past fights. Expect a feeling-out process and conservative first couple of rounds before things start to really open up, and by that point, we should already cash our best bet and can just enjoy the festivities.

🆚 Mike Malott vs. Gilbert Burns fight preview

Check our best UFC betting sites for the latest odds for this fight.

This fight is a step-up in competition for Malott, who headlines a UFC card for the first time in his career, while it's a step-down for Burns, who has faced nothing but former, future, or current champions over the past several years.

Malott may be able to rise to the occasion, but having gassed out in previous fights, such as the loss to Neil Magny, raises questions about his ability to fight five rounds confidently. Burns is a gatekeeper to the stars, and now faces an opponent ranked outside of the top-25 for the first time in seven years. It won't be easy, but veteran savvy and high-level experience will earn Burns the upset win.

Prediction: Gilbert Burns to win (+235) via FanDuel)

💡 How I'm handicapping Mike Malott vs. Gilbert Burns

I would love to back the Canadian favorite Malott, but looking at it from a betting perspective, there's just too much risk and not enough reward at his current odds. Instead, I'm taking some small action wagers on Burns, who likely covers more often than his 30% implied win probability suggests. Bottom line is I won't be too overly invested in this main event from a financial standpoint and advise a more cautious approach. 

📊 Mike Malott vs. Gilbert Burns odds

Odds via BetMGM; subject to change.

⚖️ Mike Malott vs. Gilbert Burns tale of the tape

📺 How to watch Mike Malott vs. Gilbert Burns: UFC Winnipeg

• Date: Saturday, April 18
• Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Canada Life Centre (Winnipeg)
• TV: Paramount+