⚾ Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, April 13

Two of MLB's most expensive and most talented teams begin a marquee series tonight, though one side is still adjusting to life without its key slugger.

That's Juan Soto, and he won't feature in our Mets vs. Dodgers prediction while still on the injured list. However, the game total Over remains very much in play in this David Peterson vs. Justin Wrobleski pitching matchup, largely due to the former getting repeatedly napalmed.

Peterson's presence translates to intriguing value for my MLB picks tied to the Dodgers' top hitters, including two streaky outfielders who are riding high right now.

⚾ Mets vs. Dodgers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Dodgers?

The Dodgers win in familiar fashion: Leaning on a daunting offense to keep pounding opponents into submission.

Peterson has been highly vulnerable early with his 6.14 ERA across three starts, and he's given up a combined 10 earned runs in the most recent two. Much like the far less talented Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants, the Dodgers can jump on him quickly en route to winning the first game in a series featuring two leading World Series odds contenders. 

Score prediction: Dodgers 7, Mets 4

💰 Mets vs. Dodgers prediction & best bet

Over 8.5 (-114)

Eventually the version of Peterson who was an All-Star last season could resurface. That will wait for another day though, especially against a Dodgers lineup with the league's best OPS against lefties at .863, which comes after Los Angeles sat third last year.

Peterson is getting punished often while allowing a 50.0 hard-hit rate, and his BB/9 of 3.7 shows a frequent struggle for command that will lead to more runners on base when damage is done.

Worbleski has been susceptible to allowing lasers too, with his hard-hit percentage that finished at 47.8% last season.

🔥 Best Mets vs. Dodgers player prop bet

Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 total bases (+125)

There are deep valleys and high peaks to the Teoscar Hernandez existence, and he's treating us to the latter to begin a fresh campaign.

The free-swinging and power-packing Hernandez has posted an .858 OPS across 13 games, far better than his .738 mark last season. He's making consistent contact too, as his .306 average shows.

Now after five multi-hit games to begin the campaign (including a double and home run in his last game on Saturday), Hernandez gets the pleasure of facing a soft-tossing lefty. The two-time Silver Slugger Award winner has been feasting on changeups while slugging .714 against a pitch Peterson throws 34.1% of the time.

Between that and a sinker getting hit hard 71.4% of the time, there will be plenty of chances to demolish baseballs thrown from Peterson.

💣 Mets vs. Dodgers home run prediction

Andy Pages to hit a home run (+625)

Dodger Stadium is eternally a place where homers go to flourish and live happily. There were 27% more long balls last year at the Dodgers' home ballpark compared to the average MLB venue, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors.

That's important to keep in mind when assessing all the dinger potential in this series, and especially the sizzling Andy Pages, as the Dodger Stadium homer percentage edge climbed to 34% last season for right-handed hitters.

Pages finds himself in that environment while up against Peterson. He's allowing an abundance of hard contact, and his OPS allowed is at .807, far higher than Peterson's .702 last year. That's not a recipe for success right now against Pages and his other-worldly 1.181 OPS, which sits third in MLB.

🚀 Mets vs. Dodgers same-game parlay

The link between the Over hitting on 8.5 runs and Hernandez doing his part to get us there is clear and a wise path to follow given the appealing matchup against Peterson.

The third leg is just simply a line too low to ignore. Wrobleski recorded a K/9 of 10.3 last year. That was primarily while being used in the bullpen, but it still shows his strikeout stuff. He's also facing a Mets team that doesn't put the ball in play with any authority while sitting 23rd in OPS (.658)

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💡 How I'm betting Mets vs. Dodgers: MLB strategy

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The vulnerability of Peterson at the power-hitting launchpad that is Dodger Stadium makes me confident enough to go a full unit on the Over hitting. That confidence is boosted even more when looking at the Dodgers' recent offensive destruction, which features an average of 8.3 runs per game while winning seven of eight outings prior to yesterday's loss.

I nearly went to a full unit too on Hernandez's total bases prop, but held back only slightly due to Peterson's home run suppression. That's also why the home run sprinkle on Pages is even lighter than usual, though capitalizing on his heater remains the ideal dinger play.

📊 Live Mets vs. Dodgers odds

The steamrolling Dodgers are unsurprisingly generating much of the action so far at the best MLB betting sites, with Los Angeles getting 88% of the bets on the moneyline and 85% to cover -1.5 through DraftKings.

The slant isn't quite as pronounced with the total, though there's still a clear lean, with the over on 8.5 runs drawing 65% of the action.

We could see the total inch a little upward as first pitch nears, and the Dodgers continuing to shorten as the favorites.

📈 Mets vs. Dodgers betting trends

🚑 Mets vs. Dodgers injuries

📺 How to watch Mets vs. Dodgers

• Date: Monday, April 13
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Mets starter: David Peterson (0-2, 6.14 ERA)
• Dodgers starter: Justin Wrobleski (1-0, 4.00 ERA)