⚾ Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Monday, April 13
📡 SBR Edge: Best NRFI Bets Today for Monday (April 13)
We've won eight of our last 12, and that's after losing both plays on Friday. Let's get back in the win column today with a 10-game schedule on this fine Monday. We're targeting the Red Sox vs. Twins and Guardians vs. Cardinals to get us six simple outs. Let's build that bankroll to kick off the week, shall we?
ā¾ Best NRFI bets today: April 13
See all of our expertsā MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ā¾ NRFI pick | šµ Units | š Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Red Sox vs. Twins NRFI (-155) | 2u ā 1.29u | Twins own a .165 xBA vs. Crochet |
| Guardians vs. Cardinals NRFI (-130) | 1u -> .76u | Liberatore owns top of Guardians lineup |
Total wagered: 3 unit | Max profit: 2.06 units
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š° Best NRFI bets today for Monday
Red Sox vs. Twins NRFI (-155) - 7:40 p.m. ET
- Garrett Crochet (3.12 ERA) vs. Bailey Ober (5.27 ERA)
- NRFI records: Red Sox (9-6) vs. Twins (11-5)
We have two of the best NRFI teams in baseball going head-to-head with one of the best pitchers in MLB on the bump for Boston - if that doesn't smell like six outs, then I don't know what does. Crochet is striking out this Twins lineup at a 34% clip, giving me all the confidence in the world that he'll get out of a tough situation if Minnesota threatens in the first. On the other side, Boston owns a .206 xwOBA against Ober, who's allowed a run in the first frame just once this season (three starts).
We're dropping two units on our play of the day, just the second time this season we've done so. I'd price this bet closer to -190 betting odds.
🤑 More MLB props
Dive into Andrew Brennan's home run predictions for Monday if you're looking to cash in on some long balls today. He's also got you covered for the entire slate with his MLB player props. Elsewhere, Sean Tomlinson is all over his Mets vs. Dodgers prediction.
Guardians vs. Cardinals NRFI (-130) - 7:45 p.m. ET
- Gavin Williams (2.04 ERA) vs. Matthew Liberatore (3.38 ERA)
- NRFI records: Guardians (12-4) vs. Cardinals (9-6)
Another game, another matchup with two strong NRFI teams. It helps that Liberatore seemingly has the Guardians' number, with Cleveland's projected top three hitters going 2-for-13 against him (.161 xBA overall). On the other side, Williams has held Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker hitless across five combined total plate appearances. The sample size isn't as large as we'd like it to be here, but it's enough to make me confident in dropping a unit on six outs. Let's sweep the damn board today.
šµ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-12 | -3.24 units |
| NRFI picks | 9-10 | -1.00 units |
š” How I'm betting NRFI picks today (April 13)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
No matter the day, I look at how a pitcher matches up specifically to the lineup he's taking on. What's their expected batting average against him? What's their strikeout rate? What's each team's NRFI record? More specifically, how do the top three batters fare against a specific pitcher? These are all thoughts that need to run through your mind before placing a high-variance bet like a NRFI, and slide your units accordingly.
ā NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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